The hottest glue price is not lack of bullish supp

  • Detail

There is no lack of bullish support for rubber prices

dragged down by factors such as the general decline of bulk commodities, the rebound of the yen and the increased supply pressure in the peak season, Tokyo rubber has been blocked and fell since the end of May, Shanghai rubber has also begun to rise and fall, repairing the sharp rise and fall market in the early stage of adjustment, but recently it has risen strongly and challenged the previous high. In a comprehensive view, the global rubber market still does not lack the support of bullish factors

first, as Tokyo glue and Shanghai glue both fell sharply, and oversold the spot glue price in the Southeast Asian production area and the spot glue price in the qiongdian production area respectively, the upside down of futures and cash may inhibit the further decline of futures glue price, and trigger short speculative funds to take the initiative to make up profits, and lead to the continuous reduction of inventory. Among them, the inventory of Shanghai glue decreased for 13 consecutive weeks, from 94295 tons on March 7 to 18995 tons on June 6, The cumulative decrease reached 75300 tons, with a relative decrease of 79.9%. The continuous reduction of inventory pressure helped to ease the decline of futures glue prices, and even a technical rebound

second, at the turn of the second and third quarters of this year, the global rubber market is in the peak supply season, but there is still great uncertainty in the climate of the production areas. For example, at present, Southeast Asian countries, including Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, etc., are generally suffering from severe rainstorm disasters, and may also be hit by disasters such as typhoons, posing a serious threat to the production of Tianjiao (267951030.00,4.00%, bar)

third, geopolitical tensions and the outbreak of war are expected to intensify. The short-term decline in oil prices does not change the medium - and long-term rise, and is close to the high of $140. Combined with the extremely low thermal conductivity, the glue price is strong, including the spot price of styrene butadiene rubber and other varieties approaching 24000 yuan

fourth, after the domestic earthquake disaster, there will be the recovery, reconstruction and expansion stage of highway, automobile, tire and other industries, which will help to expand the demand for natural rubber such as film with long elongation after fracture of the overall soft materials. The above factors are likely to limit the seasonal fall space of rubber price

in addition, from the perspective of disk, the current trading of Shanghai Jiao is active, the trial production volume in the second quarter of the transaction is maintained at a large scale of 10000 hands, and the position exceeds 130000 hands. Whether it is short-term funds that absorb low and sell high, or the active entry of medium and long-term funds, it promotes the liquidity of Shanghai Jiao, which is relatively conducive to the rise of futures prices

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI