The hottest glue price seeks a new balance in the

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Looking for a new balance in the high-level oscillation of rubber price

Market Review

after the Spring Festival, the price of Tianjiao futures on Shanghai Futures Exchange has experienced a wave of ups and downs. First of all, the rubber price experienced a wave of rapid rise, and completed the supplementary rise of the Japanese rubber market during the Spring Festival in a short time. Then, when the international crude oil price and the Japanese rubber price callback, the Shanghai rubber market fell continuously

the trend of Japanese rubber is also twists and turns. At the beginning of February, the Japanese rubber index rose rapidly. On February 6, the Japanese rubber index hit a record high of 272.73, and then the Japanese rubber index also fell sharply. It was not until February 16 that the Japanese rubber index showed signs of stabilization and rebound. February is also the month in which the daily rubber index rose and fell the limit the most

both Shanghai Rubber and Japan rubber experienced a rapid rise at the beginning of this month, reaching a record high, and then a rapid sharp decline. On the one hand, this is caused by the decline in crude oil prices; On the other hand, rubber companies need to have a process of adapting to the soaring price of natural rubber, and both long and short sides in the market need to find a new price balance point in the violent volatile market

fundamental analysis

1 The high rubber price has caused psychological changes on both sides of the long and short sides

the Shanghai rubber futures price has risen from 13000 yuan in May 2005 to about 20000 yuan at the end of 2005, which has caused problems such as the decline of tire and rubber benefits and the difficulty in breaking through structural unfair technical barriers. The profit margin of rubber enterprises such as shoes has decreased significantly. At the beginning of 2006, the price of rubber soared by more than 4000 yuan in just two months. Facing such a high price, rubber enterprises need a certain time to adapt, and many enterprises have reduced the purchase volume of natural rubber in a short period of time. The high glue price also triggered psychological changes between the long and short sides in the futures market. The short side has changed the previous delivery pressure into the receiving pressure for the bulls to bear, while the Tianjiao bulls have the problem of who will pay for the high glue price once they receive goods from the futures market. Therefore, we can see that after the rubber price quickly rose to the price of more than 24000 yuan, the bulls have made profits to close their positions. On the one hand, it is a sign of safety to fall into the bag. On the other hand, it also shows that the Bulls prefer to make a direct profit from the futures closing rather than take the Tianjiao spot in the hands of the bears

it can be said that the psychological changes of both long and short sides are the driving force leading to the deep correction of Tianjiao this time. The Bulls closed their positions one after another, resulting in the high collapse of the futures price after the rapid rise. The market needs to find a new long short equilibrium point in this high-level oscillation, and spot enterprises also need to have an adaptation process to the high glue price

2. As of February 24, the inventory of Tianjiao futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange was 44355 tons, an increase of 6055 tons over last week, and the inventory registered as warehouse receipts was 34700 tons (6940 in total), an increase of 3245 tons over last week. The position of 0603 contract is 4670 hands, which means that there will be no pressure on delivery in March

on the other hand, some traders of Tianjiao said that the non futures inventory of Tianjiao in Hainan and Yunnan is indeed very small, and the inventory of SCR5 glue in the two places is only about 3000-4000 tons, which is not a small hidden danger for medium and long-term short delivery

on the whole, the problem of low inventory of natural rubber still exists. Now there are more than 9000 warehouse receipts in 0604 contract and more than 38000 warehouse receipts in 0605 contract, which may be a lot of pressure on short sellers. It can be said that the tight supply of natural rubber must have a strong support for the high rubber price

3. Southeast Asia gradually enters the stop cutting period

from the geographical latitude, Southeast Asia is closer to the equator than Hainan and Yunnan production areas in China, but Southeast Asia still experiences a stop cutting period of Tianjiao for nearly one month from March to April every year. During this period, the supply of natural rubber in the world is almost in a vacuum, and almost all production rubber depends on inventory. At this stage, natural rubber is in a low inventory period, so the arrival of the cut-off period also has a certain boost to the price of natural rubber

4. The international oil price is linked with the rubber price again

this round of Tianjiao price upward correction, in addition to seeking a new balance at the high above the long and short, the high fall of the international crude oil price is also an important reason for this round of Tianjiao price correction

however, we can also see that this round of international crude oil price correction is not smooth, and the oil price has been strongly supported at $60. At the same time, we can see that the security situation in the oil producing region of the Middle East has become another focus. The Iranian nuclear issue has been in a uproar since the beginning of 2006. The United States deployed troops, and Iran also took the most effective "oil supply" as a bargaining chip to confront the United States. Although Russia is now actively mediating on this issue, it hopes that the "Iran nuclear issue" can be resolved in a peaceful way. However, according to the experience of the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq in the past two times, the United States and Iraq will not easily compromise. Once the war breaks out, the international crude oil price may once again challenge a new high

5. At the beginning of 2006, the demand for domestic automobile pressure shear experimental machines was also the same, and small displacement vehicles became the new favorite.

with the rise of international crude oil prices, small displacement vehicles have increasingly become people's new favorite. According to incomplete statistics, the automobile output of Tianjin alone in January 2006 reached 1.5 times that of the same period last year

On the one hand, the concept of small displacement shows that the rise in crude oil prices has made people pay more attention to energy conservation. On the other hand, small displacement vehicles have been restricted in many cities. Now small displacement vehicles have become the new favorite of automobile consumers. It can be expected that domestic automobile consumption will inevitably rise sharply in 2006

the increase of automobile consumption will inevitably increase the consumption of tires, which also shows that the market consumption of natural rubber will maintain a strong momentum in 2006

to sum up, since it is impossible to theoretically predict the fatigue limit and fatigue life of materials under variable load to replace the dynamic strength index, although the price of natural rubber showed ups and downs at the beginning of 2006, the bull market pattern of basic supply exceeding demand has not changed, and natural rubber will continue to rise in the medium and long term

technical analysis and outlook

from the perspective of time cycle, it took 11 trading days for the current round of Tianjiao to break through the rise on January 19 and end the rise on February 9, while the callback from February 10 to February 24 also happened to take 11 trading days. The rubber price is likely to end the adjustment this week and resume the rise

from the perspective of the moving average system, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day and 30 day moving average of 0605 contract is undergoing a bonding process. The callback of the previous period has formed the crossing of the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average over the 20-day moving average. By February 24, the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average have begun to be passivated and leveled, and the futures price has also formed a compensation for the 30 day moving average

from the perspective of technical analysis, the rubber price has shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding, and the upper pressure is 22020, 22490, 22960, 24480. Combined with the gap in the early stage, the author believes that the suppression force on the front line of 22500 is relatively large, and then the futures price will face the pressure of the early peak near 24480-25000. If the upper space is expanded once the breakthrough is made, the future market of Tianjiao will inevitably be a bull market rising process

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