The hottest glue price has strong anti seasonal fl

The anti seasonal fluctuation of rubber price is relatively strong, and the downward space in the later stage of operation is still limited.

I. Market Review

in June, the futures price of natural rubber in Shanghai, as expected in our last report, showed a pattern of anti seasonal fluctuation. The first side excitedly said that the overall price remained within the highest range of this year of 14600-16000 yuan per ton, and the trend was greatly affected by international crude oil and other factors. At the beginning of the month, with the strong support of the soaring international oil price, Shanghai Rubber broke through the 16000 yuan mark, and then the crude oil was weak. In addition, the Southeast Asian production area established cooperation with regional industry enterprises with special product supply capacity in June and July, and gradually became a high production period. The market's expectation of future supply continued to increase, which hindered the upward rise of the price of natural rubber

however, after the current price fell again to the purchase price of the State Reserve of 14600 yuan, it encountered strong support, and rebounded strongly at the end of the month after a few days of consolidation, but the overall operation was still within the shock range

the monthly high of the main contract of Shanghai Jiaotong in November was 16250 yuan/ton hit on June 8; The low point was 6, reaching 14600 yuan per ton on the 23rd of the month before fitlin put the above plan on new Dow into practice. As of June 30, the futures price closed at 15570 yuan/ton. Compared with the closing price at the end of May, the overall increase was 815 yuan/ton, or 5.5%

Shanghai Jiao 0911 contract (daily line)

the figure shows the daily trend of Shanghai Jiao 0911 contract. (image source: Beijing mid term)

in the same period, the trend of Tokyo futures is weaker than that of Shanghai Futures. In June, the continuous strengthening of the yen became a major factor to suppress the Japanese glue, but after falling to the previous low of 150 yen per kilogram, the support was obvious, and there was a continuous rebound at the end of the month. The lowest point of Japanese rubber in June occurred on June 24, during which it hit 149.5 yen/kg; The high point occurred on June 5, when it hit 173.1 yen/kg. By the 30th, it closed at 159.6 yen/kg, which was free to hang compared with the sliding body and film closed at the end of May. The overall price fell by 6.6 yen, or 4.0%, which was significantly weaker than the performance of Shanghai Jiaotong in the same period

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