Failure of the hottest Moore's law gives China's i

2022-09-23
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Does the failure of Moore's law give China's integrated circuit industry more opportunities

from the perspective of industry and economy, what is the status of China's integrated circuit industry, including our innovation? What is the development trend in the future

if you want to have a point of view, we first remind you that this year marks the 60th anniversary of the birth of the world's integrated circuits. Chinese people think that 60 years is a cycle. Since the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening up in 1978, standing at such a time node, we can see the development of the global integrated circuit industry, including what is the future direction of China? Will we face a huge change or change

opportunities are reserved for those who are prepared. Let's analyze what opportunities are? Is China's semiconductor industry ready for future development opportunities

the current situation of China's integrated circuit industry has a lot of shares, and its strength is weak.

first of all, we can review the data. In the past ten years, everyone has recognized that China is the fastest-growing region in the world's integrated circuit industry, and none of them. Over the past decade, the average growth rate of China's integrated circuit industry has been 15%. If it exceeded 20% since the release of Document No. 18 in 2000, what is the global growth rate in the same period? Not more than 5%

as for the current status of our country, there are views from all sides after the ZTE incident. Some say it's good, some say it's bad, and some say that China's integrated circuit industry is not important at all

it can only be said that in 2000, what was the proportion of China's integrated circuit industry in the world? 0.8%。 But now China's integrated circuit industry accounts for about 15% of the world

at the same time, China Semiconductor Industry Association is one of the six countries and regions that have joined the World Semiconductor Council. This organization includes the United States, so flexible packaging manufacturers basically do not need it, Japan, South Korea, the European Union, Taiwan, China, including Chinese Mainland. Like the so-called five permanent members of the United Nations. Our current position in the integrated circuit industry is that China occupies a place as one of the world's six major integrated circuit powers or regions

next, let's look at the industrial structure. I remember that in the integrated circuit industry in the past nine years, 70% of the primary industry was packaging and testing manufacturers, and China was just a low-cost processing base. Up to last year, the IC design industry has been the first in the industrial chain and the largest industry among the three parts of design, packaging and manufacturing. The proportion of the packaging and testing industry to meet the experimental power has been reduced to less than 40%. In the future, the proportion of the packaging and testing industry will further decline, the proportion of chip manufacturing, including IC design, will further rise, and our industrial structure is constantly optimized

third, the strength of enterprises is also increasing. The IC design industry is developing very fast. Among the top 50 IC design enterprises in the world, China accounts for 10. On the contrary, China's top 10 IC design manufacturers have all entered the top 50 in the world

chip manufacturing industry, SMIC international and Huahong are the top ten wafer OEM enterprises in the world. In the field of packaging and testing, we have three listed enterprises, Fujitsu, Changdian and Tianshui Huatian, all of which are the top five packaging and testing enterprises in the world

at the same time, look at our technological innovation, whether it is design, manufacturing, packaging, testing, equipment and materials. With the strong support of special projects in 2001, 2002 and 2003 and the continuous efforts of enterprises, we should say that we have made great progress

at the capital level, what is the status of the nineties? Many experts said that many ministries and commissions said that your integrated circuit industry is important, but it is more important than your 56 rooms. Steel, railway and coal are more important than the integrated circuit industry, and there are many industries related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. Because at that time, on the one hand, the country had no money, and secondly, all industries were short of money, so the result of the integrated circuit industry was no money

now? Big funds promote the development of the industry. Why? The environment has changed. First, our country is rich. Second, there is excess steel production capacity, and coal is not used. Including railways, high-speed railways are almost paved, four horizontal and four vertical

why has the trend changed? The general environment has changed, and there is no shortage of money. Moreover, these industries that compete with us for resources are all industries that need to go to capacity. So in recent years, more and more funds have been invested in integrated circuits

of course, our gap is also obvious. Design, manufacturing, packaging and testing are all-round. When we talk about industries, we often talk about the so-called comparative advantages. For example, the integrated circuit industry, the American design industry is relatively strong, the Korean memory industry is relatively strong, the wafer foundry industry in Taiwan, China is relatively strong, and the equipment and materials in Japan are relatively strong. People have their own comparative advantages. Now everyone has strong requirements for China's integrated circuit industry. Every field is not the first. It's unfair for you to say that China's semiconductor industry is not doing well. We should look at it dialectically. What we are facing in the semiconductor industry now is a short board or a dilemma. Don't just see trees but forests. You only see a certain point, you don't see the whole industry, and you don't analyze its reasons

Where are the opportunities for China's integrated circuit industry?

let's say that the 60th anniversary is a year. Is the current trend changing

first of all, at the market level, the global market is good. Although the growth rate in the past ten years is not too fast and ups and downs, it has also warmed up in recent years, with an annual growth rate of nearly 5%. Relatively speaking, just like the GDP of the United States, it's good if you can exceed 3%, even if our semiconductor industry can reach 5%

so what is the state in China? The scale of the 1.6 trillion yuan integrated circuit market accounts for more than half of the world, just like the situation of China's railways 20 years ago. There is a serious shortage of supply. China has a 1.6 trillion yuan market, with an annual import of 260 billion US dollars

second, it is hard to find a good product. The same is true of Chinese chips. After the ZTE incident, the United States restricted the sale of 44 Chinese enterprises, including domestic wafer foundry enterprises, to buy equipment. It must be clear that they cannot be used for military purposes

third, Moore's law. How to treat or evaluate Moore's law. Personally, I think Moore's law has promoted the technological progress of the integrated circuit industry, but has it promoted the innovation of the integrated circuit industry? Personally, I don't think so

why? What have we seen in the IC industry in the past 20 years

in the global semiconductor industry, first, there are fewer and fewer enterprises. With continuous mergers and acquisitions and centralization, there are fewer and fewer chip enterprises

second, in the past few years, capital has been far away from the semiconductor industry. Why? Because Moore's law is like an imperial examination. What is science? First, it has a standard answer. You have 24 months and 18 months. The performance is doubled and the price is reduced by half. It has a standard answer. Second, it is the last elimination. It is not a positive incentive, it is a negative incentive. If you don't do well, that's it. You reach the level of Moore's law. Sorry, if you don't do well, you'll be eliminated. Under such circumstances, which investor is willing to invest

after the emergence of surpass Moore, the sky of the first global semiconductor market did not collapse, but the market warmed up. The second capital has also returned to the semiconductor industry. Why? Because we used to call it exam oriented education, but now we are quality education. Moore's law fails. There is no standard answer. There are more possibilities. It may be third-generation semiconductors, artificial intelligence, two-dimensional materials, or MEMS. You can expand more opportunities horizontally. In this case, it is precisely our opportunity to innovate that investors will return to the semiconductor industry

our view is that surpassing Moore is precisely an opportunity for innovation in the semiconductor industry

third, if you follow the old road, how can you go down? If you don't find another way, how easy is it for you to catch up? There is a common saying in our semiconductor industry that we cannot make up for deficiencies in the day after tomorrow. It's already backward. Now you invest, for example, 2.3 billion yuan in research and development of SMIC. How much is Samsung's investment? With 24.2 billion yuan, we are not even a fraction of others. Why should we surpass others

if we follow the old path, it is really that if China's semiconductor industry has innovation, it is very difficult to follow the so-called Moore's law in the past to catch up

what is emerging market? How can we catch up

first artificial intelligence. Why are we so concerned? So important? Is the market so big? We say it's not intelligence. What are we looking at? It's artificial. You are fighting for the voice of artificial. Whoever controls artificial will grasp the general trend of the future development of artificial intelligence

second 5g. We can see that the top ten IC design enterprises in China in 2017, the first Huawei, the second Ziguang zhanrui, and the third Zhongxing microelectronics, are all engaged in communication and have come all the way with 2G, 3G, and 4G. Since 5g has the opportunity, our domestic IC design enterprises will also have the opportunity in the future. We copied the three major IC design enterprises in the pre 4G era. Can we breed more and better IC design enterprises in the 5g era

industrial control or intelligent manufacturing. In fact, we talk a lot about made in China 2025. The United States even wants to hit China with this. What is the core? Or intelligent manufacturing. In this field, there is a huge demand for chips

smart car. The automobile industry is the most important or the most important field of national industrialization. What did the United States, Japan and Germany rely on at that time? One important thing is to rely on the automobile industry. China's automobile industry is good now. It is the world's largest automobile country, and its output is equivalent to twice the sum of the United States and Japan. However, we are a big country, not a powerful country. It is precisely driven by the smart car or new energy vehicles that we may have the opportunity to drive very large industrial changes. In such a situation, chip manufacturers can follow a big share

final consumer electronics. In fact, consumer electronics has been popular for a while, but why is there less talk now? Have not formed a scale. In our view, now is the information society, what does that person rely on to obtain information? Some people have made statistics. What do 80% or even 90% of people rely on for information? It depends on the eyes, so it is the same in the field of consumer electronics. The market prospect is the largest, and the best development in the future depends on vision and display. Therefore, in the future, we remind everyone to pay attention to the most important thing in the consumption field is to look at new displays. Of course, 4K and 8K are on the one hand, including 3D displays, such as lasers. Now, Huawei, Xiaomi and apple have launched new 3D selfies, driving the laser ranging chip. Therefore, in the future, images deserve our most attention in the field of consumption

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