Before the most popular founder strategy comes to

2022-08-09
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Founder strategy: before the strategic retreat, the first choice in March is communication and electrical equipment

summary and main views

1. Market view: before the strategic retreat, the market may have a benign adjustment. In the process of economic downturn, what conditions are needed for the valuation repair market to change to a bull market? We compared and compared the three rounds of market in, and two conditions must be met for the change of market nature and Sustainability: first, there is a huge inflection point in liquidity in terms of volume or price, with four consecutive interest rate cuts in a year, five consecutive interest rate cuts in a year, and six consecutive interest rate cuts in a year. The adjustment of policy interest rates is very obvious and strong; Second, there is strong policy support, including six national articles in 1999, nine national articles at the end of 2008 and nine new national articles in 2014. At present, it is still defined as the valuation repair market. Whether it turns into a bull market needs to be observed. The core lies in the fact that the policy interest rate is constrained. At present, there will be no huge inflection point at the liquidity level. The policy interest rate is at a historically low level and there is no basis for continuous interest rate reduction at present. In March, on the one hand, the countercyclical hedging policy will reach a climax, and the tax reduction and fee reduction policy will finally be implemented. On the other hand, after the rapid rise of the market, it needs a benign repair. At present, it is not considered to be the strategic retreat time point. The decision made in April is that, first, China US trade will come to light with the meeting of the two heads of state, and second, the social and financial growth rate and structure in the first quarter have a significant impact on subsequent economic expectations, Third, after entering the policy effect observation period, the market will pay attention to fundamentals again, and high-frequency data and local economic research will have results. At present, the allocation focuses on three clues: first, scientific and technological innovation, direct financing and indirect financing are supporting scientific and technological innovation, and the segmented industries focus on communication, electronics, computers, etc; Second, new infrastructure, including electrical equipment, and so on; Third, pay attention to consumption with stable performance, including, household appliances, etc., and maintain the configuration since February in March, that is, communications, electrical equipment and household appliances

2. Main ideas of industry allocation: Generally speaking, the market may undergo benign adjustment in March, but before the strategic retreat, the economic impact of exports and is still unclear; From the perspective of liquidity, the reserve ratio still has room for reduction, but the expectation of interest rate reduction may be too high; From a policy perspective, we focus on finance and the development of the science and technology innovation board. To sum up, the current allocation focuses on three clues: first, scientific and technological innovation, direct financing and indirect financing are supporting scientific and technological innovation, and the segmented industries focus on communication, electronics, computers, etc; Second, new infrastructure, including electrical equipment, 5g, IOT, etc; Third, pay attention to consumption with stable performance, including food and beverage, home appliances, etc. in March, the over allocation industry maintained the configuration since February, that is, communications, electrical equipment and home appliances

3. Communication, electrical equipment and household appliances are preferred in March. The supporting logic of communication lies in the acceleration of 5g business process, the digging of performance, the existence of repair expectations and the upward boom, which are the driving forces of manufacturing investment. The supporting logic of electrical equipment lies in the fact that the new infrastructure improves the industry demand, the sector valuation is at the bottom of history, and it is the driving force of manufacturing investment. The supporting logic of household appliances lies in the continuous inflow of foreign capital, the good matching of performance valuation and the easing of trade situation

report text

1 Market: before the strategic retreat

1.1 what conditions do we need to change the valuation repair market to a bull market under the background of a weak economy

the market rebound since January is initially defined as the valuation repair market. Since the beginning of the year, the all a valuation of wind has increased by 22.69%. After excluding finance and petroleum and petrochemicals, the all a valuation has increased by 29.6%. The magnitude of the valuation increase is roughly consistent with the market increase, indicating that this wave of market is driven by the valuation increase. The core logic of valuation improvement lies in the change of liquidity and the improvement of risk appetite. From the perspective of liquidity, the two RRR reductions since the beginning of the year are symbolic catalysts. On the one hand, they can increase the investment of credit funds, on the other hand, they can help guide the decline of capital interest rates. Especially after Tianliang social finance in January, the market's expectations for liquidity turned optimistic, and the market's expectations for social finance began to stabilize, thereby driving the repair of economic expectations; From the perspective of risk appetite, it mainly comes from two perspectives: one is that the Sino US trade war has released positive signals, the frequency of bilateral negotiations has increased, and agreements have been reached in some areas; the other is the reform and positioning of the central economic work conference. The central economic work conference proposed that "the capital market will affect the whole body", which significantly improved the positioning of the capital market. The introduction of the reform of the surgical innovation board registration system belongs to the stock reform, which drives the incremental market reform, The follow-up or even the main board registration system becomes possible

how does the valuation repair market translate into a bull market? Combined with the economic background, what is of reference significance is the valuation repair in the economic downturn stage. The bull market caused by the economic boom in is not comparable, and the three bull markets in are comparable. We examine the basis of the valuation repair market deducting into a bull market through three dimensions of economic growth (performance), liquidity and risk appetite

how does the valuation repair market translate into a bull market. In terms of economic growth, there is obvious downward pressure on the economy. The economic data continued to decline from the fourth quarter of 1998 to 6.7% in the fourth quarter of 1999, hitting a low point in this cycle; In terms of liquidity, there were three interest rate cuts in 1998 and one on June 10, 1999. The interest rate has a downward inflection point and there is a huge space. The short-term loan interest rate fell from 7.92% at the beginning of 1998 to 5.85% in June 1999. This is quite different from the current situation. The interest rate instrument is only a reserve instrument. Under the background of unclear expectations and price pressure in the second half of the year, the space for interest rate instruments is limited; At the policy level, on May 16, 1999, the State Council approved the "six national policies" for the healthy development of the capital market, which improved the market risk appetite, coupled with the adjustment of the interest rate policy, the 519 market came into being. In addition, the housing system reform in 1998 and the Internet Economic dividend in the United States led to the upward trend of the economic cycle from the fourth quarter of 1999

How does the annual valuation repair market translate into a bull market. In terms of economic growth, the downward pressure was huge under the background of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. The policy proposed to "maintain growth", and the 4trillion investment was started. Then the economy reversed after the low of 6.4% in the first quarter of 2009; In terms of liquidity, the policy interest rate has been adjusted rapidly. After September 2008, the interest rate has been reduced for five consecutive times, and the short-term loan interest rate has been rapidly reduced from 7.2% to 5.31%; At the policy level of supporting the capital market, the CSRC controlled the pace in July 2008, encouraged major shareholders to actively increase their holdings in the administrative measures on August 28, and unilaterally imposed them on September 18. In December 2008, the State Council issued the ninth article of the State Council, and the State Council studied and deployed the current policies and measures of finance to promote economic development

How does the annual valuation repair market translate into a bull market. At the level of economic growth, there was continuous downward pressure in, with overcapacity in manufacturing, high real estate inventories, sluggish external demand and other factors continuing to restrain economic growth. With the supply side structural reform at the end of 2015, the economy gradually bottomed out and rebounded slightly; In terms of liquidity, the reverse cycle has significantly increased the momentum. The interest rate has been reduced for six consecutive years, and the short-term loan interest rate has fallen from 5.6% to a historic bottom of 4.35%, 100bp lower than the low of 5.31% in 2009; At the policy level, in May 2014, the State Council issued several opinions on further promoting the healthy development of the capital market, namely the new nine articles, which stated that it was necessary to further promote the healthy development of the capital market and improve the multi-level capital market system

there are two conditions for the valuation repair market to evolve into a bull market: liquidity has a huge inflection point in terms of volume or price, and policy support is strong. Judging from the bull market deduction in the three rounds of economic bottoming in, and, liquidity, especially interest rates, has a downward inflection point and has a huge space; From the economic perspective, it rebounded after hitting the bottom in the fourth quarter of 1999, and rebounded after hitting the bottom in the first quarter of 2009, but the annual economy continued to decline, which means that the correction of economic expectations is not a necessary factor in the bull market process; From the perspective of policy, the State Council issued opinions to support the healthy development of the capital market, including the six national articles in 1999, the nine national articles at the end of 2008 and the new nine national articles in May 2014

at present, it is still defined as the valuation repair market. Whether it turns into a bull market needs to be mainly used for the experimental observation of the low-frequency fatigue performance of various coil springs. On the one hand, there will be no inflection point of pp-t20 or pp-t30 in the liquidity level, and the policy interest rate is at a historically low level and there is no basis for continuous interest rate reduction at present; On the other hand, it is necessary to observe whether the growth rate of social finance continues to stabilize. It is more meaningful to observe the growth rate and structural changes of social finance in the first quarter of mid April; At the policy level, the current central positioning is to move the whole body, and the reform of the registration system of the science and technology innovation board is the same as before. Whether the future will be a bull market requires observing whether the economy has hit the bottom and whether there is a huge downward inflection point in liquidity, especially interest rates

1.2 changes in economy, liquidity and policies in March

at the level of economic growth, the impact of exports and real estate is still unclear. As a leading indicator, South Korea's export data in February continued to decline compared with January, with a decline of 5.9% in January and 11.1% in February. At the same time, China Mining PMI and China New Zealand export orders were still declining. Due to the continued decline of the economic boom in Europe and Japan, the uncertainty of the Sino US trade war and the export grab factor in the second half of last year, the export uncertainty is still large; At present, there is uncertainty in real estate sales. On the one hand, the objectives of the shed reform at the local two sessions have been generally lowered. On the other hand, due to the de stocking policy, real estate sales have continued to be positive for more than any cycle in history, which means that the duration of the subsequent boom downturn may exceed expectations. The positive factor is that real estate investment is still resilient. On the one hand, the growth rate of new construction last year was high, On the other hand, financing conditions have improved

from the perspective of liquidity, the reserve ratio still has room for reduction, but the expectation of interest rate reduction may be too high. From the perspective of monetary policy, countercyclical hedging has been strengthened. Premier Li Keqiang proposed in early January to release liquidity by means of comprehensive RRR reduction, targeted RRR reduction, reverse and innovative financial instruments. The interest rate reduction has not been included in the scope of policy discussion, but the market has certain expectations for interest rate reduction. The constraints of interest rate reduction are mainly the uncertainty of prices in the second half of the year, especially food, stability pressure and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate instruments. From the perspective of liquidity volume and price, since the growth rate of social finance in January turned around, but the structure was general, we need to pay attention to the growth rate and structure of social finance in the first quarter in the future. From the perspective of interest rate, short-term interest rates, including inter-bank repo rate and bill direct discount rate, are still in the process of decline, and long-term interest rates, such as the bottom of the 10-year period, have risen

from the policy perspective, focus on the reform of the financial supply side and the registration system reform of the science and technology innovation board. On March 1, the general secretary proposed the financial supply side reform. The core reason is that the current and services are difficult to effectively serve the real economy. The financial supply side reform can be understood from three dimensions. First, optimize the financial structure and financing structure, in which some high-risk financial institutions in the structure of the financial system occupy a lot of liquidity resources, and should implement market-oriented exit. The financing structure is to promote the development of direct financing, The construction of multi-level capital market, the registration system reform of the science and technology innovation board, etc; Second, optimize the credit structure, and focus on guiding the financial structure to increase support for weak areas such as strategy, agriculture, rural areas, and small and micro enterprises; Third, improve financial efficiency, increase the integration of Finance and technology, and promote the development of financial technology

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